America’s Plan B in the Great Power Game | A Geopolitical Analysis of India-US-Russia Dynamics
Pakistan: America’s Plan B in the Great Power Game | A Geopolitical Analysis of India-US-Russia Dynamics
As global geopolitics undergoes a dramatic shift in the wake of new alignments and fractured partnerships, the United States appears to be recalibrating its South Asian strategy. At the heart of this recalibration lies an old but often sidelined player—Pakistan. Once a frontline ally during the Cold War and the War on Terror, Pakistan may be stepping back into Washington’s strategic calculus as a Plan B amidst rising tensions and strategic divergences in the India-US-Russia triangle.
The Indo-US Relationship: Strategic but Complicated
India and the United States have, over the past two decades, deepened their ties through trade, defense cooperation, and shared democratic values. The landmark 2005 US-India Civil Nuclear Agreement marked a turning point in their relations. Since then, joint military exercises, arms deals, and strategic dialogues have followed. India is a key partner in the US-led Indo-Pacific Strategy, seen as a counterbalance to China’s growing influence.
However, the relationship is not without friction. India’s continued defense partnership with Russia, including its procurement of the S-400 missile defense system, has remained a thorn in the side of Washington. While the US has shown patience, the underlying discomfort is clear. India also continues to chart an independent foreign policy, refusing to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and abstaining from key UN resolutions.
Russia and India: A Legacy Alliance under Strain
India’s long-standing ties with Russia stem from Cold War-era camaraderie, where the Soviet Union was a reliable arms supplier and political ally. Despite Russia’s increasing closeness with China—India’s primary regional rival—New Delhi remains dependent on Russian military hardware, with nearly 60-70% of India’s military arsenal originating from Russia.
Yet, Russia’s global image has suffered due to its war in Ukraine and growing alignment with authoritarian regimes. This has left India in a diplomatic tightrope walk, trying to balance its strategic autonomy with growing pressure from the West to align more closely against Moscow.
Pakistan’s Re-emergence: A Calculated Move by Washington?
Enter Pakistan—a nation with a historically complex, often contentious, yet deeply interwoven relationship with the United States. Following years of strained ties due to issues like harboring terror networks and its close alignment with China, Pakistan had seen its strategic importance to Washington wane.
But geopolitical calculations are rarely static. As the US seeks to contain China and manage Russia, Pakistan’s geo-strategic location—bordering Afghanistan, China, Iran, and India—offers a valuable asset. Recent signs suggest a subtle thaw in US-Pakistan relations, including increased diplomatic engagement, defense cooperation talks, and economic dialogue.
Washington may be hedging its bets, subtly cultivating Islamabad as a strategic fallback in case India’s balancing act between Russia and the West proves unsustainable or insufficient in the long-term strategic containment of China.
Pakistan’s Leverage and Limitations
Pakistan is not without leverage. It remains a critical player in Afghanistan’s stability, offers a land route into Central Asia, and maintains strong ties with China through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). At the same time, its economic fragility, domestic instability, and dependence on external powers—particularly China and the Gulf states—curtail its autonomy.
For the US, re-engaging with Pakistan is not about forging a full-fledged alliance, but crafting a limited, functional partnership focused on intelligence sharing, counterterrorism, and regional stability.
Strategic Implications for India
India is watching this shift closely. Any perceived revival of US-Pakistan ties—especially in the realm of military assistance—could raise alarm in New Delhi. India views any external support to Pakistan as undermining its own security interests, particularly with respect to cross-border terrorism and the Kashmir issue.
However, the Indian leadership is also aware that geopolitical flexibility is a norm, not an exception. New Delhi is thus doubling down on its multilateral engagements—through platforms like BRICS, SCO, and the Quad—to reinforce its strategic relevance to all major powers, including the United States.
The New Great Game start
As the 21st century’s version of the Great Game unfolds, South Asia is again becoming a critical theater. The United States, amid shifting alliances and global volatility, appears to be quietly rebalancing its South Asia strategy—with Pakistan as a potential Plan B.
While India remains Washington’s preferred partner in the Indo-Pacific, its close defense ties with Russia and independent stance on global conflicts have led the US to keep alternative options on the table. For Pakistan, this could mean a revival of strategic importance, albeit within a more transactional framework.
In the grand chessboard of international power politics, the old alliances are being reshuffled, and every move—whether in New Delhi, Washington, Moscow, or Islamabad—is being watched with keen interest. The choices these nations make today will shape the regional order of tomorrow.
