“Something big is going to happen…” S. Jaishankar makes a major prediction for the next two years, sends a direct message to China.

“I am not saying whether this is good or bad… I am just predicting what is going to happen, and I believe that something big is going to happen in the coming times.” This is a statement by Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar.

Last week, after the Munich Security Conference, Jaishankar was speaking at a discussion organized by the Delhi-based think tank, Observer Research Foundation.

Just days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the United States, Jaishankar presented a clear picture of some changes expected to occur in the next two years.

From the Foreign Minister’s remarks, it appears that India is attempting to build a broad consensus to counter China’s growing dominance and aggressiveness globally.

He said, “Whether it’s a rules-based order or multilateral organizations, China is the one benefiting the most from it. We all agree on this.

We also say that we need to counter this because the alternative is even worse. But I’m wondering, what exactly should we do?”

How will China’s dominance be reduced?

One way to reduce China’s dominance in Asia is by granting India permanent membership in the United Nations Security Council.

India has been striving for this for decades, but China has consistently blocked the move.

Four out of the five permanent members of the UNSC have supported India’s claim. If this happens, it would help reduce China’s influence in Asia.

However, until that happens, India would prefer to see the Quad become more active.

The Quad is a diplomatic and military group consisting of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States, with its main objective being to counter China’s influence and aggression in the Indo-Pacific region.

The 70-year-old Jaishankar said, “I was quite surprised to see that this government (Donald Trump) began its foreign policy with the Quad.

” He added, “What’s the best thing about the Quad? There’s no cost involved… everyone comes, pays their own bill, and everyone is equal.

If we’re looking at a different kind of structure, a different meaning of America’s power.”

Difference between NATO and Quad
Here, Jaishankar was likely comparing it to the model of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

NATO is a military alliance of 32 countries from Europe and North America, with two-thirds of its annual budget being provided by the United States.

President Donald Trump was a harsh critic of the policy that allocated a significant portion of NATO’s annual budget to the United States.

Countries like Germany and Poland, which are NATO members, have increased their defense spending,

while many other European nations have not contributed even the minimum 2% of GDP, which was mandated by the new cost-sharing formula introduced in 2019.

Will Trump focus more on the Quad?
According to Jaishankar, there is a growing consensus among influential groups in the U.S.

that it would be in America’s interest to free itself from its foreign commitments and relationships.

Therefore, Jaishankar’s example might be signaling that Trump, who adopted an aggressive stance towards China, could shift his focus more towards the Quad, which had somewhat stagnated under the Biden administration.

Last week, during their meeting, Trump and Modi also agreed to outline a new defense partnership framework for 2035.

This agreement is expected to be finalized by the end of this year.

While both countries are negotiating over the complex issue of tariffs, on the other hand, China’s growing power is a shared concern for both nations.

This is why India and the United States need to come together on the global stage.

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